Harry Potter star Daniel Radcliffe is dumping the Lib Dems for Labour because Nick Clegg is a “whipping boy” and Ed Miliband is “genuine, genuinely leftwing, and will act as such if he gets in.” Yet Bayesian inference suggests Radcliffe’s reasoning is flawed. The probability of a politician behaving differently when in power compared to …
Politics
‘Conservative-led’? Or just Conservative?
It’s been a year since Ed Miliband’s shadow cabinet diktat to stop using the word ‘coalition’ to describe the current government. The preferred term is ‘conservative-led’, chosen – apparently – to highlight the rightwing agenda of the government and the impotence of the Liberal Democrats in the coalition. A year on and it’s still bloody …
Politicians and sex
What can behavioural economics tell us about political sex scandals? More than you might think. I’m currently reading Dan Ariely’s excellent book Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces that Shape Our Decisions. In one chapter, Ariely describes a study he undertook in 2006 which tested whether periods of sexual arousal altered responses to some questions about sex. In …
Osborne’s apparent lack of understanding of the National Accounts
Perversely, today’s surprise GDP figures have provided meat to all sides. Labour claims it was their action while in government that helped grow the economy 1.1% in the second quarter compared to the first. The Coalition claim the figures validate their approach of expedited deficit reduction, pointing to the fact that the majority of the …
The government is right to address the pensions issue
Firstly, let’s separate out two different issues relating to pensions – the pension entitlement (essentially a benefit), and public sector pensions (part of a contract between the government and its employees). The Coalition government has made proposals relating to both this week, which is likely to confuse the issue of how specific measures might decrease …
The same, but different. Lessons learnt from the first Labour leadership hustings.
I was lucky/unlucky enough (depending on your perspective) to attend the New Statesman Labour leadership hustings earlier in the week. As the hustings took place on the same day as nominations closed, I imagine they’ll get more media attention than the other fifty-odd hustings taking place across the country over the coming weeks. So much …
The vexed issue of equality quotas
I have an interest to declare. I am a white, middle-class male. For that reason, I’m sure some will discount what I’m about to write as the bitter ramblings of a malcontent, angered by the prospect of his white, middle-class brethren losing their bear-like grip on the upper echelons of the Labour party. Not only …
VAT is the problem?
Detail is gradually emerging on the sorts of economic measures the new coalition government are likely to pursue. David Cameron insisted on Ministerial pay restraint for the duration of the current Parliament, The Guardian today suggests child benefit for middle-class families will be cut, while a BBC survey of economists points to increasing VAT as …
Devil in the detail
While David Cameron and Nick Clegg were having their love-in in the Downing Street rose garden yesterday, details emerged of the terms upon which their coalition was founded. Most of the document represented a mix of the Conservative and Liberal Democrat policies outlined in their manifesto. Some of those – like immigration caps – are …
Contrasting visions
Inevitably events like those which occurred yesterday throw up a lot of analysis and comment, most of it guff. To avoid contributing to the guff pandemic which is sweeping Westminster, here is a very brief reflection on the speeches made by the outgoing and incoming Prime Ministers – there was a subtle but important contrast …